Glasgow North-East proves Labour is on the slide

I'm down with the flu and not at my best, however, I do want to comment on the result of the Glasgow North-East by-election.

If you look at ukpollingreport, you will see since 1997, Labour has polled fewer votes at each subsequent election, although during this time Michael Martin was standing as Speaker. In 1997 Labour polled 22534 votes. In 2001, 16053 votes. In 2005, 15153 votes. In the by-election, Labour polled 12231 votes. There has been a boundary change, but in a solid Labour area, this has not made any difference.

What we see here, is election after election, Labour voters are not voting for other parties, instead they are staying at home. If you look into data in other constituencies you will see the same trend. This is why Labour MPs with majorities under around 8000 are getting the jitters. They know with a big anti-government vote on the way, they are vulnerable.

The Glasgow North-East by-election does not prove Labour is on the march. Far from it. It proves it is on the slide. Labour's best hope for the next election is its core vote stays at home. This is the only way it can retain many seats it would normally regard as safe.