Predictions for Hull and East Yorkshire Parliamentary Seats

I am not going to attempt to predict the outcome of the next general election, but I am going to give you my predictions for seats in Hull and East Yorkshire. There are seven seats in total:

Beverley and Holderness (Conservative)

The constituency’s MP is Graham Stuart. Replacing the rather ineffectual James Cran, Mr Stuart has proved himself as a hard-working, popular local MP and will easily retain his seat and increase his majority. 

Brigg and Goole (Labour)

If the Conservatives are to stand any chance of forming a government, this is a seat that must be won. The current MP, Ian Cawsey, is holding on to a reasonably small   2894 majority, and it being pursued by Conservative, Andrew Percy. My prediction is Mr Cawsey will be looking for alternative employment after the election and Mr Percy will be the constituency’s MP.

East Yorkshire (Conservative)

This is a largely rural seat, encompassing the towns of Bridlington and Driffield. Even when times were bad for the Conservative Party, this seat voted blue. There is no doubt the current MP, Greg Knight, will be returned to the House of Commons.

Haltemprice and Howden (Conservative)

The seat, currently held by David Davis, is the safest in the country thanks to the by-election result in 2008. I’m sure readers will be aware that Mr Davis resigned as an MP to trigger a by-election after the government won a Commons’ vote in favour of 42 days detention without charge. As his main challenger, the Liberal Democrats, did not field a candidate, Mr Davis was returned to Westminster with a 15335 majority. In 2001, the LibDems nearly won this seat, but there is no doubt in 2010 David Davis will be re-elected as the constituency’s MP.

Hull East (Labour)

The seat, currently held by John Prescott since 1970, will have a new MP later this year. Mr Prescott is standing down and the Labour candidate is local man, Karl Turner. There would have to be a political earthquake for the people of East Hull to elect anything other than a Labour MP. This is as safe a Labour seat as you can get.

Hull North (Labour)

This is the seat everyone in political circles in the region is talking about. Diana Johnson has held the seat since 2005 and on paper it looks safe, but since the last election, Hull City Council has been in Liberal Democrat control. There could easily be an upset in this part of Hull and the LibDems will be pulling out all the stops to create an upset. This is the contest we are all looking forward to and currently, it is too close to call.

Hull West and Hessle (Labour)

This seat has been held by Home Secretary, Alan Johnson, since 1997. The former postman is a popular MP who has bonded well with his constituents. He will undoubtedly be re-elected and then who knows what is in store for him. For me, he is the best communicator Labour has and if anyone is going to get Labour back into shape again, it is Mr Johnson.